Week 7: Ten @ LAC

INTRO: our gambling analysis happens over g-chat while we work at our separate jobs several thousand miles apart. slindblo’s chats are in blue on the left, rj_gray’s are in purple and on the right.
 
Current line: LAC -6.5, O/U 45.5

alright lets start with the super early game

TEN @ LAC

i say “@ LAC” because i read an interesting theory on london games

basically it goes that people read “ten @ lac” and

assume it’s a clippers home game

even though it’s in london

and the chargers don’t really ever have home games

also i will probably interchange clippers and chargers frequently

so youre saying this is actually the only

chargers home game all year?

it’s not less of a home game than an actual home game

i almost think that puts more pressure on them to win

there may be more chargers fans in london than la

i always picture london to be all jaguars fans

ok so chargers kind of home game

now, the stats

TEN sucks on offense

bad *pass offense

decent rush offense

theyve scored 20 points 1 time this year and it was OT
also
whats the line haha
LAC -6.5, O/U 45.5
tough line
right off the bat i thought under
no way
over central
why?

over games are rarely blow outs by one team

and the over relies on TEN to score

go on

because once a team gets up 4 scores or so

towards the end of the game, they let off the gas

and the team down 4 scores does as well

so to hit 46 points

you’d need at least 14-21 points from TEN

which has happened once this year
I don’t see the chargers winning like 41-7
thats true

i do think the chargers are a better team

but tennessee is weird and can be sneaky good

i agree that they are weird and last week
could have been their offensive rock bottom

yeah they got embarrassed

11 sacks!

mariota had only been sacked 9 times in the previous 5 games

also people are high on the chargers

since they went to cleveland and won

BIG

but people forget that they’ve been on the road 2 weeks in a row

and tennessee was at home last week.

hear me out on this one

Rivers has been away from home traveling in his man cave bus to LA

hes playing way better

and now he’s basically on his bach party away from his fam

when he goes home he has to play catch with all 9 kids

that tires him out

so you think they are just going to pound melvin gordon/eckler

oh wait no i get it

so they are going to throw

because his arm is rested

because he is away from 9 WRs aka his kids
correct

TEN does have a good pass D

but LAC can also run it

5th in pass yds allowed, 4th in TDs

thats where i think the chargers do well

against the poor rush D

LAC D getting healthy
no Bosa still
anyway, i have enough to make a pick
you?
i cannot see LAC being stopped by TEN.
LAC is trending up and TEN, who had a too hot start, is trending down
i take LAC -6.5
i don’t hate that pick, but i thought under off the bat
and convinced myself that’s the play
Under 45.5

PICKS
LAC -6.5             Under 45.5
 1 unit                    1 unit   

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