Week 8: MIA @ HOU

INTRO: our gambling analysis happens over g-chat while we work at our separate jobs several thousand miles apart. slindblo’s chats are in blue on the left, rj_gray’s are in purple and on the right.

Current line: HOU -7.5, O/U 44.5


ok let me start off by saying this game is a bloodbath before it even starts

both teams have injuries on the offensive side

a lot of them

yeah and I think that houston’s play calling SUCKS

remember the game vs Dallas?

they had 3 FGs under 21 yards

and a 4th down stop

yes i am remembering that now

terrible

not a fan of o’brien

also

Osweiler revenge game??

honestly, osweiler is messing with my head because of that bears game

me too

im still pissed at that bears game

weeks later

me too

so the big ? of this game is will suh hit watson

they think he might have a punctured lung

and wasn’t really hit last week

haha oh wait

suh isnt on the fins

scratch that

i was finna (pun intended) say

but watson mainly throws to 4 WRs

2 of them are hurt

and fins main two corners are playing well

do we know if kenny stills is playing?

hes out

so basically no WRs are playing in this game

both teams have kick returners starting

im leaning under because of this

i dont think either team will move the ball well

almost 70% of the money is on the under

its moved from 45.5 to 44.5

Fins D has held opponent QBs to the 7th worst combined passer rating

counterpoint is that they don’t really get sacks

only 11 thru 7 games

but 11 picks

wow thats a crazy stat

their picks and sacks are in perfect correlation

so if they get a sack….

you KNOW whats coming next

watson leaves the game?

he didn’t fly to jax last week

because of his lung

he took a private bus

thats one of those scary football injuries

like he should not play

i know it doesnt seem worth it

“breathe or play football?”

well phrased like that it seems obvious choice may be football

air is overrated

so i’m feeling myself talking myself into the dolphins

7.5 is the scariest line

*2nd scariest

3.5 is the worst

haha

you like fins over under?

i realize i said that in a confusing way

i know what you mean

but i don’t know the answer

hopkins hasn’t been ruled out, right?

no

neither team will have success running in this game i believe

both teams banged up at WR

we’re due for a dud offense Thursday night

which also helps the Fins +7.5 line

i don’t think it will be a blowout

i could see houston winning like 24-10, i could also see like 13-6 game

both of those are unders

houston is 2-5 hitting the over

miami is 4-3

both have the same record ATS

i think with the current health of the team gives Hou the edge

but both offenses are banged up and both defenses are healthy

i have to go under on this one

under 44.5

with stills out, i lean houston to cover

if hopkins were to be ruled out that would change everything

but assuming he plats

i take under 44.5 as well


 PICKS

U44.5                U44.5
       0.5 unit            0.5 units     

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