NFL Week 11: KC @ LAR

Current line: LAR -3, O/U 63.5

new rams line -3
63.5 O/U
highest in history
highest in history?
we for sure have to bet it then
yup
i know it
u know it
vegas knows it
also the rams and chiefs know it
i hope they put on a show
 
i might still bet it if it was 70
the o/u for OU and OSU last weekend was 80
final score
48-47
haha
love it!
the baylor washington alamo bowl of 2011 line was 78.5
i was betting the over no matter what
there were 59 points at half
omg
that is so fun
final 67-56
yes
betting an over game
that is obviously an over game is so great

so we both agree the over is a must

now the game

i think 3 weeks ago we’d say these are by far the two best teams

but are the rams showing cracks?

that’s kind of the narrative going around

77% of public is on the chiefs

which is almost a record for an underdog

-but- i disagree that the rams are falling apart

they played the saints close in NOLA

does vegas know something we dont?

no i dont think this is one of those games tbh

we talked about carolina/lions being a trap game

and bet it anyway

and were right

but still lost money

we got trapped

this is like the super bowl where there are so many bets that there isn’t a big sharp angle

i think this will be a last team with the ball game

which favors a team getting 3.5 points

you know what the difference is in those games? special teams

rams have a great punter and kicker

greg the leg

tyreek hill though can flip the field

mcvay is too smart, they wont kick to him

here’s why i like the rams:

defense is better and puts pressure on a young qb

it’s a home game

and rams have one more year of experience under their system than the chiefs so are less likely to make a big mistake

and gurley is so good and won’t be stopped

here is my one counterpoint on the QB pressure

they get interior pressure the rams do

and mahomes is better outside the pocket

well the interior pressure is going to be on full display since chiefs center is out

thats big

the line is -3 LAR and im really hoping the public moves it to 2.5

but either way im taking Rams -3

NFC > AFC

as you know i cant pick a winner to save my life

i think the kupp injury hurts the rams a lot

but i think their defense is stronger than the chiefs

and as discussed, they have the special teams edge as well

rams -3

Picks

Over 63.5        Over 63.5

  LAR -3            LAR -3 

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