NFL Week 12: ATL @ NO

Current line: NO -13, O/U 60

i hate that i keep liking the teams playing NO

i dont want to bet against them

we’re going to finally bet on NO and they wont cover

yeah i cant

i think i like it because its divisional

and primetime

and i think primetime games are exciting for overs

or at least those teams got up for the game yesterday

brees is playing out of his mind

and as a result the defense is playing with confidence

holy crap

insane

also michael thomas has caught 90% of passes thrown to him

its unprecedented 

the highest ratio of all time for a season was like 70

we couldnt even do that playing catch in the parking lot before ND/NU
so im going to hammer this point home

but thanksgiving games attracts a lot of casual bettors

so this give perfect sharp opportunities

NO/ATL is a perfect example

66% of bets on NO -13, but 73% of money on ATL

but i dont think i will bet against NO

you cant

if you thought they were going to slow down the last few weeks you would have lost every bet

i know

i agree

but vegas did this with the chiefs

no one thought they couldnt not coer

and then they put them at -16.5 vs ari

and didnt cover

so i think you get nervous when it gets over 16

because thats what happened to the bills vikings

but 13 isnt nearly as bad

well the line opened at 14.5

the other point here

you know how i feel about road teams in divisional matchups

atl is on the road
right, road teams show up during divisional games

atl is 2-1 ATS in the division

NO is 1-1 ATS

ok so im leaning NO but its a big spread
im leaning ATL but i hate betting against NO i keep losing

lets talk o/u

right thats what i was going to say

NO defense has been hot

but even with that, both NO and ATL are in the bottom 6 defenses when it comes to opponent QBR

that equals points

im more likely to bet this over because i think the theory of teams going out to show off on national games was on full display on MNF

i also think the saints want to prove they are really the best team

everyone is talking about the chiefs and rams

i mean this is NO vs Atl in a dome

as daniel day lewis said in his role as vince lombari – “there will be points”

people forget that he’s a method actor
he got into betting in order to learn the game
and now he’s addicted
right

so i lean over then

i think the points happen no matter what. and i think i convinced myself that NO will cover because of the rams/chiefs talk

but im only going to bet Over

i think NO will cover but they could easily win by 10-12


and the only reason the over doesnt hit is if atl is held to low teens or single digits 

so for that reason i go over only

PICKS
OVER 60      OVER 60

 

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