Current line: NO -13, O/U 60
i dont want to bet against them
we’re going to finally bet on NO and they wont cover
i think i like it because its divisional
and primetime
and i think primetime games are exciting for overs
or at least those teams got up for the game yesterday
brees is playing out of his mind
and as a result the defense is playing with confidence
holy crap
also michael thomas has caught 90% of passes thrown to him
its unprecedented
the highest ratio of all time for a season was like 70
but thanksgiving games attracts a lot of casual bettors
so this give perfect sharp opportunities
NO/ATL is a perfect example
66% of bets on NO -13, but 73% of money on ATL
you cant
if you thought they were going to slow down the last few weeks you would have lost every bet
i agree
but vegas did this with the chiefs
no one thought they couldnt not coer
and then they put them at -16.5 vs ari
and didnt cover
because thats what happened to the bills vikings
but 13 isnt nearly as bad
the other point here
you know how i feel about road teams in divisional matchups
atl is 2-1 ATS in the division
NO is 1-1 ATS
lets talk o/u
NO defense has been hot
but even with that, both NO and ATL are in the bottom 6 defenses when it comes to opponent QBR
that equals points
i also think the saints want to prove they are really the best team
everyone is talking about the chiefs and rams
as daniel day lewis said in his role as vince lombari – “there will be points”
so i lean over then
i think the points happen no matter what. and i think i convinced myself that NO will cover because of the rams/chiefs talk
but im only going to bet Over
i think NO will cover but they could easily win by 10-12
and the only reason the over doesnt hit is if atl is held to low teens or single digits
so for that reason i go over only
