NFL Week 13: NO @ DAL

Current Line: NO -7, O/U 52.5

ugh

sometimes i hate being a sharp

haha why?
sharps are all over cowboys +7 tonight

and i cant get behind betting against the saints

thats why we are armchair sharps
i guess thats true. we’re only sharps when we want to be

probably a bad strategy

its like behavioral economics. economics teach how to react when people act rationally.

behavioral takes into account how people actually act

pure logic says cowboys. but actually its the saints

my take on the logic of this game is that the saints dont follow reversion to the mean stats.  when a team is playing at this level, you bet on them until they lose

its like bama

we’ll look back and say, “wow, we could have gotten the saints for 7 points??”

and if they dont cover i also wont be upset

i know but we missed that boat the last 9 weeks

theyve covered 9 in a row

haha

you just KNOW if we jump in now we’ll lose

yeah but here are some key stats

Tyron Smith is out for the cowboys and his strength is pass pro

his replacement is good at run pro

both team defenses are good against the run so both teams will likely have to pass

on top of that the saints might get Marcus Davenport back

their 1st round pick pass rusher

im unsure how good NOLA is at run D. teams dont run much against them because they get down quick. only 224 rush attempts this year against them (~20/gm)

and zeke is hot

i think he might be able to move the ball

hes hot because they have been up

21-25-30-31 carries

i think cowboys stick to the run tonight

even if they get down quick

i could throw a thousand stats at this one

but i think you have to roll with the hot hand

in these instances i turn to O/U

but i could convince myself to bet both

yeah i could see this as a low scoring game actually

cowboys hold people

saints D has been good at forcing TOs

but its also the saints so an over can break out any any moment

quick stat to support the saints

they can clinch playoffs tonight with a win

just based off common opponents recently (eagles, redskins) the scores havent been close

saints won 43-19 and 48-7

cowboys won 31-23 (should have been closer but a bad call at the end that cost me covering…)

and 27-20 v eagles

yeah those are divisional games for the cowboys tho, so a little hard to compare
saints are crushing the NFC East
they played them both at home
thats true
but saints are 5-0 ATS on the road
i think sean payton is trying to cover the spead
so you like them even at 7.5
as much as that line sucks i do

i wonder what the stats are on teams covering 7.5 and 3.5

i dont know, we cant yet afford a stats department

i hate betting them

i dont know why im so against the saints

but i cant bet against

them

saints -7

its like you hate the saints bro

and sean payton knows that so just to spite you he wont cover

cowboys +7

jkjkjkjkjkjk

saints -7

thats our first lee corso mascot head fakeout on the blog

haha

PICKS
NO -7      NO -7

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