NFL Week 15: LAC @ KC

Current Line: Sea -3.5, O/U 54.5


BIG game tonight

Pat Mahomes vs your boy Phil Rivers

as much as ive hated phil in the past

he’s grown on me this year

except he still throws like a guy who’s arm is asleep

hes a shot putter
and miraculously it works somehow 

line is now KC -3.5, o/u 54.5

and i have a thought but i want to hear yours first

KC won this game earlier in the year

can they win 2? idk

this one’s at home
ok

honestly i think mahomes can be slowed by a good defense

and LAC has a sneaky good defense

but they have a better offense than a lot of the good defense teams that have slowed KC (Bal, Den)

yeah and chargers are 5-1 ATS this year on the road

they have this stigma abou tnot playing well on the road

and they have proved it wrong this year

but this one is tough. they had a tough game against the bengals, and now have to fly east in the cold on a short week.

your boy Phil commutes everyday to LA from SD so i think hes used to the travel

also

KC hasnt easily won any of the last 3 games

so you like chargers

i’ll tell you what i like

i think i like the chargers
i like the under
*record scratch*
the o/u has moved like crazy

opened at 56.5, went down to 53.5, now at 54.5

here’s why i like it

1. both teams are down 2 RBs

2. both teams rely heavily on the pass

3. it will be windy and cold in KC

4. short week

5. this is the 2nd time they’ve played each other. both Ds have seen the offenses

6. Tyreek Hill is hobbled

counterpoint

Pat Mahomes doesnt even need to look at receivers to throw at them

this is true

also 

this is fantasy semi finals

and people are praying for a lot of points in this game

drives the over up

aka my unproven theory

haha but the total went down

so that goes against your theory

but it’s going back up!

also thats because sharps jumped early

public isnt early bettors

the fantasy owners are pulling back up

ok ok

i like that theory

also stephen a smith predicts hunter henry to have a big game tonight

that helps the chargers

and your early pick

based on the year he’s having

he should be a matchup nightmare

People forget another guy named Henry had 47 fantasy points last week
justin jackson also has a monster game

he had 8 carries for 63 yards 2 week ago

and he went to northwestern

so he’s smart

people forget that too

very forgetful people out there
but hes also a nerd then

which hurts

he’s smart enough to know tonight is a must win game, so he’s leaving it all on the field

winner will get a bye in the playoffs

well if KC wins, they lock it up

if the chargers win, they have a chance

the other falls to wild card which is insane

that is crazy
KC could be a wild card team. how much would that suck if you win your division and have to face them round 1
LAC is playing to win and move up and KC is playing to not move down

i think thats a big difference

so you’re saying that KC is playing defense in the AFC

and they are bad at defense 

that’s actually sound

despite all of this, i’m sticking with my under

i have too many reasons to play it

yeah i like your pick

but i think ill stick with my pick of LAC +3.5


PICKS
Under 54.5               LAC +3.5 

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