NFL Super Bowl LIII Game Picks

Current Line: NE -2.5, O/U 56.5
alright lets talk super bowl

ill be honest

i dont know what i like for the game

but i LOVE a few props

before i get into those, what have you been thinking about the game

as i did for the championship games, ive gone back and forth

the problem is i picked the eagles last year and called the upset

i think i’d pick the rams if the pats didnt lose the super bowl last year

i kind of feel that way too, but that shouldnt matter

oh i know it shouldnt

but my brain doesnt

if that makes sense

it does. the thing that is also pushing me to the rams is that i really dont want the pats to win

and i dont want to cheer for them

this is a total bet with your heart game

ive lost a lot of money betting that way

the other other thing that pushes me to the rams?

the fact that EVERYONE is on the pats

house always wins

and the house needs the rams to win

i feel like vegas knows something, because 80-85% of the money is on the pats and the line has been stationary

omg

i love that

the house never ends the year on a bad note

(no stats to back that up)

no need

its a known fact

(not true)

how do you see the game moving? high scoring? low? passing, rushing?

the unders were the play all playoffs

until the 4th quarter of the pats/chiefs game

right when we needed it most

that over hitting was nothing short of miraculous 

just think

that was the last bet we’ve made untl the super bowl

we’re coming in hot

we’re one PI call away from being VERY hot

so you dont see a lot of points

so do you think its run heavy

no i think the 4th quarter broke open the points

and it will be point-a-palooza

the pats wont let the rams run

they’ll make goff beat them

i like that

and i think goff looked pretty good against the saints

IN the dome

goff o/u 38.5 passing attempts

gurley o/u 3.5 receptions

i dont love the attempts but i could be talked into the receptions

my favorite props are the ridiculously small lines

brady o/u 1.5 rushing

LOVE that

but we are getting off track with the props

thats later

Goff has a super hot swimsuit model gf now so he has some swag coming into this game

thats true

did you see the pic of aaron donald today

shirtless?

did I??

i looked at that picture longer than any pic in the last 3 months

its insane

how do the pats stop him?

and Brady’s only weakness is pressure up the middle
yep!

you know who else had good interior pressure?  the Jets when we bet pats -13 and the Pats barely covered

Brady looked really bad in that game

yeah he did (they did cover though)

(but i mean it was the jets)

(they should have won by 1 million)

good point
(thanks)*
idk if the pats will be able to run

the pats need to run to win i think

also the rams can play man well

their corners are healthy

thats what i’m thinking the rams will do. pressure the interior, man up and make the pats WRs beat them
right

thats how you beat the Pats

its simple really

but, the pats could still win that way

i think brady doesn’t really get sacked

but i think he throws a pick

no he gets the ball away too quickly

jam and man though

which leads to big plays

so for that reason i think over

i dont know, i almost think under

kinda think that pats might struggle early

yeah i probably wont bet the over here

or under

you know how i feel about teasers

so im not ruling anything out

1H under does seem appealing thought (27.5)

i could do a first half under here

but that killed me in last years SB

i know and betting unders is so unfun

but

i could see 1H under and 2H over

in fact i convinced myself, playing 1H under

omg

is there a 1Q under?

Q1: 10.5

pats -0.5

that is so scary

but i think i might play 1Q U

you know right away whether you win or not

nice to get one under the belt

and also you can bet more on later bets to make up for it if you lose
good strategy

i agree

alright lock it in

Q1 Under 10.5

i really want the line to go 3.5

me too
and then i might tease rams +9.5, U62.5
ooo thats a tasty bet

i would still make the +8.5

i would too, but id like it to keep moving

i like the rams

i just cant bet them -2.5

but if the rams went +3.5 i would just bet that for a good amount

and the teaser

and a bunch of props


PICKS
Q1 U 10.5
H1 U27.5
TEASER: LAR+8.5, U62.5
LAR +3.5 (if the line moves)

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